Processed Tomato Market 2026: Global Production, Tomato Paste Prices & Trade

2026 Industrial Tomato Production by Country & Region

Italy

The forecast for industrial tomato production in Italy stands at 6.35 million metric tons, up 8.7% from 2025 and above the 5.7 million mt projected in February. The north should account for 3.25 million mt out of the total. High summer temperatures accelerated crop development, leading to an early start to the harvest and bringing forward both the mid- and late-season crops. Recent hailstorms in the north should have a limited impact on the final volume. The prospect for the center and south is 3.1 million mt. The WPTC reported in August that July heatwaves could negatively affect the late crop. Some processors are planning to end harvesting ahead of schedule. While heat-related yield losses played a role, industry sources indicated that the decision was also influenced by weak market demand and elevated production costs, particularly for energy, which reduced the incentive to process additional volumes.

Spain

Spain’s industrial tomato output should not exceed 2.6 million mt this season. The processing season has drawn to a close in Andalusia, where yields are 5-15% below expectations. Heatwaves and pests have affected the mid- and late-season crops.

Portugal

Portugal’s tomato production should not exceed 1.3 million mt. Rains at the end of August have slowed down the harvest, and about 40% of the processing was completed by Aug. 31. Brix levels are unusually low (below 5%), even though the color remains good. As in Spain and northern Italy, there are concerns about late crop conditions.

Turkey

Turkey has reduced its production forecast to 2.2 million mt from the 2.45 million mt projected in July. The harvest in the south is over, while processing plants are still running in Balıkesir, Bursa and Manisa. Summer temperatures in Turkey were less extreme than in other Mediterranean countries, but the contraction in planted area in the south, coupled with an oversupply of tomatoes during the peak harvest period, contributed to the smaller-than-expected crop.

Egypt

Egypt was due to harvest 800,000 mt this year, but the final volume could be lower. The summer-crop planted area was 5-7% smaller as growers shifted to more profitable crops due to high production costs, including fertilizers, crop protection products and energy.

Greece

About 80% of the surfaces had been harvested by the end of August in southern Greece, where the season should end by Sept. 10. The harvest in the center, where 70% of the planted area has been harvested, should instead stretch to Sept. 15-20. Yields average 90-95 mt/ha, and fruit quality is good. The forecast remains unchanged at 440,000 mt.

Iran

Iran has maintained a production forecast of 1.7 million mt. The harvest is at an early stage, and high temperatures and recent heat waves have put pressure on the crop. Factories are processing more tomatoes this year than in previous seasons, largely due to weaker demand for fresh tomatoes caused by lower domestic purchasing power.

California

California’s latest production forecast is 10.0 million short tons (9.07 million mt), 10% lower than last year’s 11.1 million st. The USDA estimates average yields at 54.9 st per acre, lower than the 58.4 st per acre reported in 2025, but higher than the five-year average of 50.4 st per acre. The contracted area stands at 182,000 acres, 4% smaller than in 2025. Figures from the Processing Tomato Advisory Board (PTAB) show that weekly volumes harvested in August were below the 2025 level, despite a strong start to the harvest in July. The PTAB estimates that by Sept. 8, about 6.67 million st of tomatoes had been delivered to factories for processing, representing about 67% of contracted volumes.

Canada

Harvest began on Aug. 14 in Canada. To date, the crop looks good, with good color and solids. While some fields experienced slightly delayed maturity due to the cooler weather over the past couple of weeks, harvest is progressing well overall. At this point, it is anticipated that contracted volumes will be achieved, with the potential to finish slightly above contract. The forecast for the country is 578,000 mt.

China

No changes to the forecast in China, with the WPTC estimating final production at 5.85 million mt.

Tomato Paste Prices: Spain, Italy & China

Spanish tomato paste prices continue their downward trajectory. The double concentrate fell from €1,080-€1,180/mt EXW in July to €1,100/mt in August, and further down to €1,050/mt in September. A similar trend was reported for the triple concentrate, which declined from €1,360/t to €1,300/t between July and August.

Italian processors quoted the double concentrate at €1,600-€1,700/mt EXW in August, but market activity has stalled, forcing some companies to close contracts at €1,500/mt. The industry is still holding sizable inventories that need to be absorbed. An Italian processor noted that under normal conditions, existing inventories would be cleared by October, but this year they may continue to weigh on the market until December or beyond.

Market quotes from China remain sporadic as the industry continues to assess production costs and crop performance. Chinese processors quoted prices at $690-$770/mt FOB for the double and $790-$800/mt FOB for the triple in July, but most sources noted that pricing is still unclear. “There have been relatively few inquiries from customers for the 2026 crop, and the high temperatures and drought in Xinjiang this year have affected tomato yields. Factories are uncertain about this season’s price trend,” a trusted source explained.

Tomato Paste Trade Trends: Global Exports in H1 2026

Global trade figures show a downward trend in tomato paste exports from all main origins in the first six months of this year, except the US and Spain.

United States: Exports totaled 184,527 mt, almost 5% higher than in H1 2025, supported by a near 60% rise in exports to the Netherlands and Italy.
Spain: Exports were slightly higher (up 3%) at 159,000 mt. Spanish suppliers gained market share in Germany (+35.7%) and Japan (+25.8%), while losing ground in the UK (−19.4%) and Portugal (−22%).
China: The world’s largest trader of tomato paste shipped 586,000 mt in H1 2026, just below the 602,600 mt recorded in the same period of 2025. West Africa remains a key destination, with sharp increases in exports to Ghana, Nigeria and Côte d’Ivoire.
Chile: Down 7% to 94,700 mt; Portugal: Down 8.8% to 119,700 mt.
Italy: Exports of tomato concentrate fell by 10.7% to 136,000 mt, largely due to steep declines in shipments to Germany and France. Tomato sauce volume was also down 8.6% to 218,000 mt. Canned tomato products exports stood at 682,000 mt (down from 729,000 mt in 2025).
Lower volumes of diced and whole tomato products were also shipped by Spain (down 6.7% to 61,000 mt) and the US (down 9% to 41,800 mt).

Processed Tomato Market Outlook

Market fundamentals remain bearish. Trade data show declining exports from most major origins in the first half of 2026, while industry sources in some countries reported high inventory levels and sluggish demand. Spanish processors have responded by gradually lowering offer prices to secure sales. In contrast, high raw material and energy costs limit the flexibility of Italian suppliers, while Chinese processors remain cautious and have yet to establish clear price levels for the new crop.

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